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Ivan the Terrible, Part Deux.

This is pure speculation on my part, however...

I expect by 11am tomorrow morning that a hurricane watch will be posted from Apalachicola, Florida to just east of Mobile, Alabama. The middle of that target area? Ft. Walton Beach/Destin. The afternoon spaghetti run (computer models) are all clustering in that area that I've just marked off. That's what I expect the NHC to post.

The main track remains east of my area and brings the storm into the Big Bend area (around Apalachicola), despite all the models being west of that line. My main suspicion is that the NHC does NOT want to move the projected path because the Big Bend area is a sparsely populated zone, while the area I listed would mean close to a million people would be affected by the watch. However, I suspect the 5pm advisory will move the path more westward... and life gets as it's been noted... interesting.

Landfall expected Wednesday. The local forecast office simply has 'tropical storm or hurricane conditions likely' for the offshore area from Pensacola to Destin. You tell me what they're thinking now.

I'll keep this updated as much as I can.

Comments

( 1 comment — Leave a comment )
aeb
Sep. 12th, 2004 06:36 pm (UTC)
{fingers firmly crossed that things work out WELL! {SMILE}

Anne Elizabeth Baldwin
( 1 comment — Leave a comment )

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tal_greywolf
Tal Greywolf

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